Question 1: At a dinner party this weekend, a friend introduces you to a woman named Genevieve. He tells you that Genevieve recently graduated from Bryn Mawr College with a B.A. in philosophy, where she was an active volunteer in an advocacy group for women's health and edited a literary magazine. You’re interested in talking to Genevieve about [Georg] Hegel, the subject of her senior thesis, but your friend jumps in and asks you to rank the following statements about Genevieve in order of their probability:
(1) Genevieve is a feminist.
(2) Genevieve is looking for a job as a sanitation worker.
(3) Genevieve is a feminist who is looking for a job as a sanitation worker.
Given what you know about Genevieve, rank the statements from most likely to least likely.
Question 2: Later that evening, your friend presents you with a deck of cards with a number on one side and a letter on the other. He deals you four cards from the deck. Here is what you see laid out before you on the four cards:
9 J U 2
Your friend then asks you which cards you will need to turn over in order to determine whether the following rule holds for the deck (assuming these four cards represent the rest of the deck):
If a vowel is printed on one side of the card, then an even number is printed on the other side
Which cards do you turn over in order to test this rule?
Question 3: Genevieve offers you a bet. “Flip this quarter,” she says. “If it’s heads, I’ll give you $200. If it’s tails, you pay me $100.”
Should you take the bet?